Rare Finds refresh chance

[Metsu]

Figured out the Rare Finds refresh chance as I was tooling around today. It is per shop but it seems most of the shops have trends based on what kind of shop it is. Here's the basics.

Once you pass the required time limit since your last check (I posted times per shop in Gameshark thread), the rare finds inventory tries to refresh.
There is a base chance that the items will appear out of 100.
This chance is increased by how much over your minutes since last check was.
Essentially, it tries rolling the base chance 1-5 times max.
The number of rolls is equated by dividing your minutes from last check time by the minimum wait time in minutes. For example...
You wait 30 minutes before checking a shop which has a minimum time of 15 minutes. 30 / 15 = 2...so the game would roll twice to see if an item appears.

The odds are increasingly better the longer you wait, but who cares when you can just reset right? At least you'll know why it might take quite a number of resets if you only stop back after the required time.

Item Shops: ranage 15% to 55.63%
Armor Shops: range 10% to 40.95%
Rune Shops: range 25% to 76.27%

Any item that already has inventory has a chance to increase the inventory by a random small amount (based on store).

[Omnigamer]

So the update chance is related to the shop timer only and does not vary item-to-item? Hm. This means that resetting is going to be the best policy in a lot of cases, as opposed to continuing on with the story and checking back later. That's unfortunate, but at least it's known now.

[Metsu]

Yeah unfortunately. Then again, I guess it's good that some of the items aren't more rare than others.

Also forgot to post the chances I had captured (still missing a few). Plus a couple of new discoveries.

Some shops have a weird specification that the FIRST item has double the base chance to appear. Also, each shop has a quantity threshold which is randomly determined.

ryube item: 11m (1128e2) 15%
kyaro item: 11m (116d20) 10%
toto item: 11m (111482) 10%
merc fort: 11m (161c0a) 10%
muse item #1: 11m (174396) 10%
ryube burned item: 11m (1106d4) 10%
white deer inn: 11m (11618c)
muse item #2: 11m (1743d8) 10%
coronet item: 11m (1198ae) 5%
kuskus item: 11m (112fb4) 10%
south window item: 21m (164218)* 15%
radat item: 21m (163b6c) 10%
lakewest item: 11m (113794) 10%
two river item: 21m (1612ac) 10%
kobold item: 21m (11a9a4) 15%
?? item:
?? item:
highway item: 21m (1168e6) 10%
banner item: 11m (11aa44) 10%
gregminister item: 21m (16738c) 10%
tinto item: 21m (162efc) 15%
crom item: 21m (164384) 15%
greenhill item: 21m (1648e0) 15%
rockaxe item: null null
muse item #3: 11m (174420) 10%
sajah item: 3m (110680) ** 15%
two river winger item: 21m (163ee4) 10%
two river kobold item: null null

ryube armor: 11m (1127d6) 10%
muse armor #1: 11m (17456a) 10%
muse armor #2: 11m (1745b0) 10%
south window armor #1: 11m (164054) 10%
two river armor: 21m (111834) 15%
forest village armor: 21m (11551c) 10%
?? armor:
gregminister armor: 11m (16756c) 5%
tinto armor: 11m (163044) 10%
rockaxe armor: 21m (11bffc) 20%
muse armor #3: 21m (174600) 10%
south window armor #2: 11m (1640a4) 15%

muse rune #1: 31m (1746f2) 20%
muse rune #2: 31m (174720) 20%
south window rune #1: 31m (1643a4) 25%
two river rune: 31m (1613f0) 15%
?? rune:
?? rune:
south window rune #2: 31m (1643c8) 25%
greenhill rune: 31m (116bbc) 15%
rockaxe rune: null null
muse rune #3: 31m (174754) 20%
sajah rune: 21m (1108d4) 5%
white deer inn rune:
gregminister rune: 31m (167750) 5%


* There is only one south window shop for some reason
** Not a typo!

[Antimatzist]

Just wanna say that these are some pretty amazing findings! I still have some questions. What is the "first" item the store is rolling for? Are the rare finds ordered? And what do the % in your last post exactly mean, the chance that an item appears?

[Omnigamer]

The items associated with each store are posted in one of the last pages of the Gameshark thread, I believe. The percent is the chance out of 100 of "adding" stock to that item. The time is the refresh period for the shop to increase stock meaning you need to wait at least that long, but you get bonus rolls for every full period that elapses before checking it again up to 5. The "first" item is just that: the item that will appear first in the Rare Finds list. Consider it the more common Rare Find.

An example:

You want to check Banner Pass Item shop for Rose Brooch. Banner Pass has a refresh rate of 10 minutes, and a restock chance of 10%. If you check the shop at 11 minutes after you last checked, you will have a 10% chance of Rose Brooch showing up. However, let's say that you instead check it 41 minutes after you last opened the shop. Your chance of having a Rose Brooch listed is now 34.39%:

1-(1-.1)^4 = 34.39%

Or if you instead checked at 51 minutes or more,

1-(1-.1)^5 = 40.95%

Let's change the equation a bit and now try to get Fury runes from Muse. Muse has 30 minute refresh period and 20% restock chance. After 31 minutes, you have a 20% chance to have a Fury stocked. However, if you instead check at 1 hour and 31 minutes, you have 48.8% chance of it being stocked:

1-(1-.2)^3 = 48.8%

Or after 2 hours and 31 minutes:

1-(1-.2)^5 = 67.23%

Neither of these examples treats the item as the first item though, which I'm pretty sure is accurate.

[Antimatzist]

But it rolls for each item independently, yes?

[Metsu]

Yep, each item gets the same amount of rolls with that percent. Except for the few stores that have a special bonus for the first item (they are in order on the gameshark page). I still need to list those out though to figure out which ones are double chance.